Not too many years ahead you will get disruption. Predicting when is something we can’t do… (It will reward) those with cash and guts
Introduction
Paul van Eeden once explained his theory of amassing a fortune through the course of three bullish cycles. Here is a breakdown of his analysis:
Cycle #1 - Educational
- This is the cycle in which you learn the ropes, find trustworthy sources, and get a full grasp of what investing is all about. Typically, lots of hard knocks are involved
Cycle #2 - Put your knowledge to work
- The task and opportunity here is to apply the lessons you learned in Cycle #1 and create a significant load of capital
Cycle #3 - Make your fortune
- You apply the knowledge and experience from Cycle #1 and the significant capital earned from Cycle #2 to produce outsized gains in Cycle #3
| Walter Schloss | Martin Whitman |
The Educational Cycle
We started building our investment portfolio using a straight-line long-term approach in 2004, which is how it is usually done by traditional Financial Planners. However, if we had waited until November 2007 to execute all the acquisitions done in the US markets since 2004, we could have increased our annual dividends about 50-100% by the end of 2008
This section contains a check-list of conditions to be verified before submitting buy-orders in the future, to avoid the same mistakes timing the market. The intention is to obtain much better results during the next credit crunch, which probably will happen between 2011 and 2017
Premises
Evidence
Conclussions
